I hope so, because that’s what I wrote about this week.

RECOMMENDED READING
First, Assume the Can Opener Is Broken
What Will Trump’s New Economic Policy Look Like? Part 2
What Will Trump’s New Economic Policy Look Like? Part 1

I haven’t written much about artificial intelligence because it’s neither my area of expertise nor something having much effect at this point on economics, American politics, or public policy. But the hype has reached such a fevered pitch that I’ve felt obligated at least to educate myself on the topic. And I figured I should share what I’m learning, though be forewarned you’re getting thoughts still in development. I’ll probably use some terms imprecisely. Indeed, I’m hoping that my own comments will generate feedback and questions, new information, corrections, and so on.

So, what do I think of AI? I remain deeply underwhelmed. McKayla-Maroney-level unimpressed.

Obviously, the large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT that have garnered so much public attention are cool technology. In some contexts, they represent an improvement on traditional search engines and bring a wider range of better-organized information more quickly to the user’s fingertips. They summarize large amounts of text into smaller amounts of text, which is very useful. The most advanced versions, like OpenAI’s new o3 model, show extraordinary mathematical reasoning ability—in some domains of math and science, as well as in writing computer code, they are approaching the performance level of the top humans on some tasks. And of course, the uncanny imitation of various writing styles is an entertaining parlor trick.

AI has the potential to transform various industries and job categories, make lives easier in many ways (and more difficult in many others), and aid scientific discovery and technological progress. In this respect, it is what we would call a “general purpose technology” (yes, coincidentally, also abbreviated GPT), like electricity, the internal combustion engine, the computer, or the Internet. It will also expand the capabilities of “the bad guys,” as all those technologies did as well, creating new threats that will have to be countered.

As with other GPTs, its most effective uses will be discovered slowly, deployment from lab to real world will take years, and the full impact will be felt over decades. Thus, as with other GPTs, our base case should be that AI will represent not some unprecedented break with the prior trajectory of innovation, but rather a breakthrough necessary for the continuation of that trajectory. Historically, as progress from one GPT has been exhausted, another has emerged to grab the baton and sprint ahead. Without new GPTs emerging, we experience stagnation.

Since the start of the industrial revolution, machines in their many forms have replaced virtually all the work humans once did, creating the surge in productivity responsible for modern prosperity and the opportunity to do all the work we now do. The computer allowed mathematicians and scientists to make entire new classes of discoveries. Hopefully AI will too. But these outcomes would not represent a divergence from the past; they would be the continuation of business as usual in the modern era.

Unfortunately, at the moment, all the preceding enthusiasm makes me a Negative Nancy. I asked Claude, the Anthropic chatbot that many consider more advanced than ChatGPT, to suggest some other phrases that start with the letter “n” that mean the same thing as Negative Nancy. For alliterative purposes, I thought it would be fun to throw in a “nattering naybob of naysaying” or what have you. Claude suggested Negative Nate/Nathan, Negative Ned, Negative Norman… and then noted that such phrases “can be dismissive of genuine concerns or feelings someone might have. Would you like to share the context in which you’re looking for these phrases? There might be more constructive ways to address someone’s negativity.” Yes, Claude, the context in which I’d like to use these phrases is that you provide answers like that one.

Continue reading at Understanding America
Oren Cass
Oren Cass is chief economist at American Compass.
@oren_cass
Recommended Reading
First, Assume the Can Opener Is Broken

And more from this week…

What Will Trump’s New Economic Policy Look Like? Part 2

Oren speaks on a panel about economic policy in Trump’s second term and more with Jason Furman, Richard Burkhauser, and Kimberly Clausing.

What Will Trump’s New Economic Policy Look Like? Part 1

Oren joins a panel discussion with Jason Furman, Richard Burkhauser, and Kimberly Clausing about what Trump’s second term’s economic policy.