Politicians are still selling a “Dream” that voters aren’t buying

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Executive Summary

In Fall 2024, American Compass partnered with YouGov to survey 6,000 Americans about their values and priorities, views on what has gone well and poorly in America, and reactions to various messages and proposals that politicians might offer. The results reflect a nation fundamentally at odds with the values and rhetoric promoted by its own political class.

Americans do not necessarily think of the American Dream as “the opportunity to go as far as your talents and hard work take you; anyone, regardless of where they start, can rise to the top.” Indeed, they are as likely to define it as “the promise of dignity, equality, and a job that supports a family; everyone, regardless of where they start, can build a decent life.” For the vast majority, concepts like “free markets” and “economic liberty” are not fundamental values.

What they care about most is not the message of opportunity and dynamism, mobility, consumerism, and free markets with which they are bombarded, but rather the security and stability, rootedness, productivity, and regulation necessary to human flourishing. They prefer messages and policies focused on the latter, and react positively to the argument that real sacrifice will be required from all citizens to pull the nation back out of the hole it is in.

  • Americans across classes and parties see the nation’s culture and economy promoting a model of opportunity and mobility that aligns poorly with their own values and priorities
    • America today perceived as giving some priority to stability and security over opportunity and dynamism (+17), but ideal tips the balance much further (+55)
    • America today perceived as prioritizing mobility (-14) and consumerism (-12), but ideal would point sharply toward rootedness (+80) and productivity (+70)
    • “It is most important to me to live in an America” that “is a great place to raise a family” (top choice) and “honors our values and traditions” (second choice)
  • Only 26% of Americans see “free markets” as a fundamental value and, even among those who do, few believe the term should imply a laissez-faire model of capitalism
    • Most Americans (57%), and two-thirds of Republicans (69%), prefer free markets that “protect the American market” to ones that “have free trade”
    • Likewise, most say that, “in free markets, employers have protections from unfair competition, and workers have protections ensuring fair wages and working conditions that allow them to support families”
    • Even among those who see free markets as a fundamental value, 67% say “protect the American market” and 61% say “employers / workers have protections”
  • An economic nationalism message (+42) beats industrial policy (+23), but reorienting education toward building decent lives beats both among nearly all groups (+58)
    • Economic nationalism is at least twice as popular as industrial policy with Republicans and Independents and with all except the upper class
    • A message of sacrifice beats both economic nationalism and industrial policy overall, though it has less appeal with the upper class and Democrats
    • Framing policies around sacrifice and tradeoffs instead of big gains can boost their appeal, e.g., support for tariffs goes from +11 to +46

Dreams, Promises, and Priorities

For a term so widely used, the “American dream” can have surprisingly divergent definitions. In earlier research (The Family Policy Renaissance, Explained, February 2024), American Compass provided a wide range of possible definitions and found that respondents provided an equally wide range of responses. Based on those results, this survey consolidated the options down to just two contrasting definitions:

  • “The American Dream is the opportunity to go as far as your talents and hard work take you; anyone, regardless of where they start, can rise to the top.”
  • “The American Dream is the promise of dignity, equality, and a job that supports a family; everyone, regardless of where they start, can build a decent life.”

Among 2,000 respondents asked to choose which option “is closer to your own definition of what ‘the American dream’ means to you?” the split was almost comically perfect: 1,001 to 998, with one person declining to answer.

This result does not, however, reflect confusion or indifference. By class, by party, and by generation, consistent splits emerge: the lower class leans toward the “promise of dignity” while the upper class prefers “the opportunity to go as far as your talents and hard work take you.” Democrats likewise lean toward the former, Independents and Republicans toward the latter. Newer generations trend toward the “promise of dignity,” with Millennials the one group choosing it outright, but the trend reverses with Gen Z, which looks more like the Boomers.

In short, Americans are deeply divided on what the nation’s supposedly unifying Dream even is.

While Americans cannot agree on what the American Dream is, they show much greater agreement on what matters to them: stability and security, productivity, and rootedness. That is, about half of Americans think the American Dream means “the promise of dignity, equality, and a job that supports a family; everyone, regardless of where they start, can build a decent life.” But that promise—call it the American Promise, instead of the American Dream—is what matters most.

To test those priorities, the survey presented respondents with a series of dichotomous statements. “For each pair of statements,” the survey explained, “you will be asked two questions: First, which option do you think gets more attention and is currently a higher priority in America today? Second, which option do you think is more important and should be a higher priority?” For “America today,” and then for “your ideal America,” respondents could assign either statement “much higher” or “somewhat higher priority,” or select “Don’t know.”

The “Compass Score” for each question is calculated as the net share choosing higher priority for an option, with responses of “much higher” receiving double weight. Thus, if 35% of respondents assign Option A much higher priority, 30% assign Option A somewhat higher priority, 25% assign Option B somewhat higher priority, and 10% assign Option B much higher priority, the Compass Score is (35*2)+(30)-(25)-(10*2) = 55. Absolute Compass Scores reflect the priority that Americans give to one option versus another, the distance from a Compass Score for America Today to one for Your Ideal America shows which direction Americans would like to see priorities shift.

Three sets of options addressed the issue of the American Dream versus the American Promise. The first, contrasting Opportunity and Stability, provided these options:

  • Option A: An economy that emphasizes opportunity and dynamism, where new ideas are able to create new ways of doing things, delivering innovation, efficiency, and growth.
  • Option B: An economy that emphasizes security and stability, supporting strong communities and ensuring that anyone can find a job that will support a family.

Generally speaking, Americans see somewhat higher priority given to Stability today, but their preference is to see the scales tipped substantially further in that direction. This holds true across all classes and parties, with the working class placing the greatest emphasis on stability and the upper class placing the least.

Two other dichotomies show more dramatic shifts, with Americans seeing one option as currently a higher priority but feeling strongly that the other should be the higher priority.

First, a contrast between Mobility and Rootedness, with these options:

  • Option A: A culture that defines success as someone moving to a place of great opportunity and reaching the top of a prestigious field.
  • Option B: A culture that defines success as someone building a decent life where he grew up, raising and supporting a family, and contributing to the community.

With the exception of the lower class, all classes and parties say that Mobility is given higher priority in America today—Independents and the middle and upper classes say it has substantially higher priority. All uniformly say that Rootedness would ideally have much higher priority, with Compass Scores across the board higher than for Stability in the prior question.

Second, a contrast between Consumerism and Productivity, with these options:

  • Option A: An economy that emphasizes expanding what people can buy, offering as many choices as possible at the lowest possible price.
  • Option B: An economy that emphasizes making things and creating good jobs that ensure workers can support their families and the nation can provide for itself.

Here again, responses for America Today generally and overall lean toward an emphasis on Consumerism, while responses for Your Ideal America lean uniformly and overwhelmingly toward Productivity.

Two other questions tested other politically contentious dichotomies. The first, between Diversity and Normal, provided these options:

  • Option A: A culture that celebrates diversity, treating whatever beliefs people might have and choices they might make as equally valid, ensuring that everyone can feel that they belong. 
  • Option B: A culture that celebrates normal, treating everyone with respect but emphasizing the importance of adopting traditional beliefs and choices that create a shared identity for our nation.

Here, the response overall and by class showed few strong preferences, though both middle- and upper-class scores shifted toward Normal. These aggregated results masked enormous partisan variation though. While all three partisan groups showed similar understandings of priorities in America Today, they diverged sharply on Your Ideal America, with Democrats preferring a dramatic shift toward Diversity and Independents and Republicans both wanting dramatic shifts toward Normal (the Republican shift roughly twice as large).

The final dichotomy, between Liberty and Family, provided these options:

  • Option A: A culture that protects liberty and independence, reducing constraints on people’s lives wherever possible so that they can pursue whatever course they might want 
  • Option B: A culture that protects families and communities, recognizing the many ways that people are dependent on each other and must fulfill their duties and obligations to prosper

The only remarkable feature of the result is how unremarkable it appears. Across parties and classes (and other measures as well, including parenthood and religiosity), Americans have similar perceptions of America Today and those largely align with the balance that Your Ideal America would strike.

A strong focus on family does, however, appear in a different context. Alongside questions about priorities and values for Your Ideal America, the survey also asked, “Now, think about what would make you most proud to be an American. Choose the three options below that best complete this sentence: It is important to me to live in an America that…”

  • Achieves and builds great things
  • Relies on American producers to make what we need
  • Cares for the least fortunate among us
  • Provides as much liberty as possible
  • Welcomes people from around the world
  • Defends freedom around the world
  • Is a great place to start a business
  • Is a great place to raise a family
  • I still recognize as the America I grew up in
  • Honors our values and traditions
  • Has the world’s highest standard of living

“Is a great place to raise a family” was the option most often selected, followed by “honors our values and traditions.” Next were liberty, care, and welcoming. Oft cited measures of American greatness—like defending freedom around the world, having the world’s highest living standards, and being a great place to start a business—were among the least often selected.

Sources of pride have significant partisan divisions, with “honors our values and traditions” running away with first place for Republicans (followed by “is a great place to raise a family”), while “cares for the least fortunate among us” took first place for Democrats (followed by “welcomes people from around the world”). “Provides as much liberty as possible” was notably non-partisan, retaining significant support from both parties but rising to the top of neither.

Market Values

Alongside the “American Dream,” concepts like “Free Markets” and “Economic Liberty” are frequently celebrated as fundamental American values, especially on the right-of-center. But how fundamental are they, and what do they even mean? 

One important question, which likely affects faith in markets and their operation, is whether Americans believe they are working for most people. To address this question, and as a concrete corollary to the more abstract definition of the American Dream, the survey asked, “Which do you think is closer to the truth in America today?” 

  • If you work hard you will succeed in America
  • Too many people who work hard still aren’t succeeding in America

Responses here were both uniform across groups and highly skeptical. Most Americans believe that too many people who work hard still aren’t succeeding, and that holds across classes and parties—Republicans appear only slightly more optimistic than Democrats. As with the American Dream definition, the story across generations is again notable, this time presenting a “U” shape in which the Silent generation at one end and Gen Z at the other are far more optimistic than everyone in between.

But are free markets the problem, or perhaps could they be the solution? “In political debates,” the survey explained, “the ideas of ‘free markets’ and ‘economic liberty’ come up a lot. Which is closest to your view? Free markets and economic liberty are…”

  • Fundamental American values 
  • Useful ideas that can help create prosperity
  • Overused terms that don’t mean much
  • Ways for corporations and the wealthy to profit at everyone else’s expense

Only one-quarter of respondents selected “fundamental American values” and another one-quarter chose “useful ideas.” Responses were similar across classes and identical with Independents. Republicans were more market-friendly than Democrats, but even among the former only 37% chose “fundamental American values.”

The homogeneity of those responses suggests perhaps an absence of strongly held views on the initial question. But as with the American Dream, the most significant results emerge when respondents go from defining abstract concepts to describing what matters to them.

The survey posed the same question three times: “Suppose a politician who talked a lot about ‘free markets’ wanted to earn your support. Which way of talking about free markets would you find more appealing?” Each time, respondents were presented with a contrast between laissez-faire and regulated approaches to some dimension of economic activity.

The first options considered trade:

  • Option A: In free markets, we have free trade. People and businesses in America should be free to buy from and sell to whomever they want around the world.
  • Option B: In free markets, we uphold fair competition and American values. We must protect the American market from countries that are hostile to us or do not play by the rules.

Respondents in every class and party preferred “upholding fair competition” and “protecting the American market” as the way of talking about free markets. Republicans were the group that most strongly preferred this way of thinking over one that emphasized “free trade” and the idea that “people and businesses in America should be free to buy from and sell to whomever they want.”

The next options considered the labor market:

  • Option A: In free markets, employers have freedom to run their businesses and treat their workers how they want, and workers have the freedom to leave if they don’t like their treatment.
  • Option B: In free markets, employers have protections from unfair competition, and workers have protections ensuring fair wages and working conditions that allow them to support families.

Here, the American public’s understanding of free markets was skewed far more sharply toward the regulated model, thanks to a dramatic swing among Democrats. While views on trade have become somewhat polarized, pushing Democrats toward greater support for free trade, on labor market issues Democrats overwhelmingly want free markets to entail protections for competition and workers, joining Republicans and Independents whose views persist from trade to labor.

The final options considered antitrust and consumer protections:

  • Option A: In free markets, customers take care of themselves. A business can offer any product or service on any terms, and the customer can decide to buy something or walk away.
  • Option B: In free markets, the government protects customers by making sure businesses don’t get too large or powerful and by regulating products and services that can exploit customers or cause them harm.

Views here were more evenly split, with a slight majority preferring the regulated model, but Republicans leaning strongly toward caveat emptor. Interestingly, the telltale “U” shape remerges among the generations, with the Silent generation and Gen Z most trusting of the market and the preference for regulation peaking with Gen X.

One interpretation of these results might hold that most Americans hold moderate to skeptical views of free markets and economic liberty as concepts, so of course they pull conceptions of the free market toward greater regulation. But this turns out not to be the case. In fact, even for the quarter of respondents who do consider free markets and economic liberty to be fundamental American values, their idea of a free market is still a significantly regulated one.

On trade, two-thirds of those who consider free markets a fundamental value also want to hear that “in free markets, we uphold fair competition and American values. We must protect the American market from countries that are hostile to us or do not play by the rules.”

On labor markets, more than 60% of those who consider free markets a fundamental value also want to hear that “in free markets, employers have protections from unfair competition, and workers have protections ensuring fair wages and working conditions that allow them to support families.”

Ask Not What Your Country Can Do For You

Finally, the survey tested which messages and policy proposals resonated most strongly with different groups. Respondents were presented with three different messages, and then a number of policy proposals that might accompany each.

Message 1 — Worker-Focused Economic Nationalism

The economy has to work for American workers. Our problem is that businesses no longer need American workers to succeed. Instead, they can send manufacturing jobs to other countries, or bring in foreign labor to work here at lower wages. We need to restrict imports from low-wage countries and immigration by low-wage workers so that companies trying to make a profit in America have to do it by creating good, family-supporting jobs here at home.

Message 2 — Market-Skeptical Industrial Policy

CEOs say we should just trust the free market, which mostly delivers large profits to the CEOs. They don’t invest in the real economy anymore, creating the kinds of jobs in industries like manufacturing that support families and communities and ensure America remains a global power. If we want to have those businesses in America, the government is going to have to get more involved in supporting those businesses.

Message 3 — Education for Decent Lives

We’ve turned our schools into college prep academies. But only one in five young people go from high school to college to career. Everyone else gets left behind. Education should focus on preparing young people to build decent lives in their communities. It’s great that some people go to college too, but we have to stop focusing all our attention there.

The survey presented each message and asked respondents “How would you feel about a politician who said…,” offering the options:

  • Much more likely to support
  • Somewhat more likely to support
  • Somewhat less likely to support
  • Much less likely to support
  • Don’t care

“Education for decent lives” was most effective overall, and across parties and classes—except among Republicans, where “worker-focused economic nationalism” was most popular. The “market-skeptical industrial policy” message is least popular everywhere except with Democrats and the upper class.

After each message, the survey presented four policy options. “There are a number of different proposals” consistent with the message, it explained, before asking, “How do you feel about each of the following?” For each policy, respondents could choose:

  • Strongly support 
  • Somewhat support 
  • Somewhat oppose 
  • Strongly oppose

The policies presented were:

Message 1 — Worker-Focused Economic Nationalism

  • Tariffs that raise the price of products made in other countries
  • A ban on investing in China
  • An “E-Verify” system that employers must use to ensure they are not hiring illegal immigrants
  • Ending “temporary visa” programs that bring foreign workers into the country to do jobs that employers say they have trouble hiring Americans to do

Message 2 — Market-Skeptical Industrial Policy

  • A national investment bank that helps fund activities like manufacturing computer chips and mining critical minerals
  • A requirement that products sold in the U.S. have most of their components made here
  • Reforms to environmental laws that make it much easier to get the permits necessary for mining natural resources and building factories
  • A tax on stock market trades to discourage the unproductive activity that a lot of investors are focused on instead of building real things

Message 3 — Education for Decent Lives

  • A “workforce training grant” that pays employers for hiring new workers and giving them on-the-job training, just like student loans and grants pay universities
  • A ban on listing a college degree as a requirement in job descriptions 
  • An end to government student loans; colleges would loan the money to cover tuition and students would pay them back after graduating
  • New standards and funding for high schools to offer students different tracks based on their aptitudes and interests instead of focusing on preparing everyone for college

Five of these proposals received extraordinarily high levels of net support. While the industrial policy message was generally least popular, two of its associated proposals—local content requirements and a national investment bank—were among the most popular.

Support for the most popular proposals was also consistent across classes and parties, with some notable exceptions. Local Content Requirements were much less popular with the upper class, and Mandatory E-Verify was much less popular with Democrats.

Finally, after asking about the first three messages, the survey tested something less conventional. How do Americans feel about a straightforward message that the nation has created enormous challenges for itself and great sacrifice will be required to recover? 

Message 4 — Honesty and Sacrifice

We have to be honest about the hole we’ve dug for ourselves in America, and the hard work it’s going to take to get back out. I’m not going to promise to make your life easier, because the truth is, things are going to get harder. We’ve been living it up on borrowed money and our kids are going to get stuck with the bill. That can’t go on. We all sense that America is in decline, but decline is a choice. Running up a tab we can’t pay is a choice. And I’m offering you another choice: that we come together and make the sacrifices we have to make to get us back on the right track.

This message is enormously popular, second only to the education message overall, and most popular for the lower class and Republicans. In total. 69% of respondents say this message would make them more likely to support a politician, while only 22% say less likely.

Of course, it can be difficult to know whether Americans are in fact attracted to this message or simply think they should say so in a survey. Would it survive contact with the enemy of a negative ad campaign or a cynical press? Survey data can only tell so much. But variation within the result suggests it deserves serious consideration; not everyone likes the message. The upper class is notably less enthusiastic about honesty and sacrifice, as are Democrats.

Dig a layer deeper, and the divide on the message of sacrifice becomes starker. As the lower scores with the upper class and Democrats suggested, in fact progressive whites from the upper and middle classes have the least favorable attitudes—as likely to say the message would make them less likely to support a candidate as to say it would make them more likely. Even within that group, notable variation exists between women (less likely to support a politician with this message) and men (more likely), though at this granularity the sample includes only about 200 responses.

Testing policies within the frame of honesty and sacrifice provides another useful indicator.

As with the other messages, the survey then presented a set of policy proposals—in this case, “for tradeoffs that the American people could make if we wanted to accept sacrifice now to try and change the nation’s course.” Recall, tariffs were among the least popular proposals when presented as a tool for advancing economic nationalism. But when presented as a tradeoff to change the nation’s course, their popularity surges.

Note, the tariff policy was not phrased exactly the same way in both instances. Within the economic nationalism frame, the policy was described as “tariffs that raise the price of products made in other countries.” Within the honesty and sacrifice frame, it was “restrict imports from China and raise the price of goods made there to reduce our dependence on them and make more things in America.” But one wording is not obviously preferable to the others, and the dramatic swings between the frames—including from -25 to +25 for Democrats—at least suggests that the explicit acknowledgment of tradeoffs can improve a policy’s appeal. This will be a fruitful area for research in future surveys.

ABOUT THE DATA

The American Compass Messaging Survey was conducted by YouGov between September 27 and October 8, 2024. YouGov interviewed 6,396 nationally-representative respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 6,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education and treatment. There were 3 treatment groups of 2,000 each, with each group receiving a different section of the survey and a subset of questions asked to all groups. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

After matching, four samples were weighted separately. These included:

1. Sample 1 (2,000)

2. Sample 2 (2,000)

3. Sample 3 (2,000)

4. All (6,000)

The following was the process for each sample. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories), and education (4-categories) to produce the final weight. The result was four weights (Sample 1, Sample 2, Sample 3, Weight).

In analysis of the results, “Class” is defined by education and income:

  • “Lower” (N=1,250; S1=417, S2=439, S3=394): less than a four-year degree and household income below $30K; or did not report household income and do not have a high school diploma.
  • “Working” (N=1,876; S1=640, S2=614, S3=622): less than a four-year degree and household income $30K–$80K; or did not report household income and have either a high school diploma or some college but no degree.
  • “Middle” (N= 2,101; S1=694, S2=689, S3=718): four-year degree or more and household income $30K–$80K; or household income $80K-$150K; or did not report household income and have a two-year or four-year college degree.
  • “Upper” (N=587; S1=195, S2=196, S3=196): household income above $150K; or did not report household income and have a post-graduate degree.

Respondents with a four-year college degree or more but household income below $30K are excluded from analyses using the “Class” variable (N=186).

In analysis of the results, “Generation” is defined by birth year:

  • “Silent” (N=191; S1=67, S2=60, S3=64): birth year 1945 or earlier.
  • “Boomer” (N=1,685; S1=571, S2=561, S3=553): birth year 1946–1964.
  • “Gen X” (N= 1,569; S1=519, S2=515, S3=535): birth year 1965–1980.
  • “Millennial” (N=1,712; S1=576, S2=589, S3=547): birth year 1981–1996.
  • “Gen Z” (N=843; S1=267, S2=275, S3=301): birth year 1997–2006.

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