
Young non-white men are key swing voters in 2024, but Democrats don’t speak to them
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Executive Summary
In Fall 2024, American Compass partnered with YouGov to survey 6,000 Americans about their values and priorities, views on what has gone well and poorly in America, and reactions to various messages and proposals that politicians might offer. The resulting comprehensive report (The American Wake-Up Call, October 2024) depicts a nation fundamentally at odds with the values and rhetoric promoted by its own political class.
This follow-up report highlights results for specific demographic groups receiving disproportionate focus in the final weeks of the 2024 presidential campaign. On one hand, “White Working Class” voters (WWCs) have become the emblematic base of support for Donald Trump and his economic nationalism and cultural conservatism. On the other hand, “Affluent Liberal Women” (ALWs) are widely regarded as the core constituency for Kamala Harris and the group most enthusiastic about her message of protecting abortion access and American democracy from Republican threats.
In between, “Young Non-White Men” (YNMs) have emerged as a surprising and pivotal swing vote. Historically, analyses grouped these voters with non-white voters generally residing alongside ALWs at the core of the progressive coalition. But they have defected in large numbers toward the conservative coalition.
With good reason, the Harris campaign is clearly alarmed by this trend. YNMs are nearly 10% of the adult population and an especially large share of them have yet to commit to either candidate. But the campaign’s appeals to the group do not appear well calibrated to the priorities and interests of these voters.
For instance, policy releases have emphasized issues like promoting cryptocurrency and legalizing marijuana. Prominent surrogates including both Obamas have tried lecturing, with the former president accusing young men of “putting women down” and telling them “that’s not acceptable,” while the former first lady said women “have every right to demand the men in our lives do better by us… Our lives are worth more than their anger and disappointment.” Tim Walz tweeted, “I want to talk to all the guys for a second. Think about all the women in your life that you love – daughters, wives, moms, cousins, neighbors. This election is about their lives and protecting their freedoms,” and tried playing a football video game online with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
This survey finds that Young Non-White Men are afflicted by neither misogyny, nor anger, nor disappointment; nor do they need to hear more about crypto and weed. Rather, the assumption that they can or should fit comfortably in a coalition and campaign built around the interests and priorities of Affluent Liberal Women is simply wrong—on many of the key issues in American politics, they align much more closely with the White Working Class.
- YNMs comprise 9% of the population and represent a pivotal swing vote in the 2024 presidential election.
- These men are divided evenly in their support for Kamala Harris (40%) and Donald Trump (39%) with more than 20% still undecided—a far higher share than in the electorate overall.
- They are not satisfied with the country’s direction, choosing “wrong track” over “right direction” by 25 points, similar to responses from WWCs (-27 wrong track) but starkly different from ALWs (+7 right direction).
- On key values at issue in the campaign, YNMs have much in common with WWCs.
- YNMs agree with WWCs that American priorities lean too far toward “diversity” and should shift toward higher priority on “normal,” while ALWs want to see dramatic shift toward diversity.
- ALWs overwhelmingly see America’s problems through a racial lens, while YNMs alongside WWCs are much less likely to prioritize such issues.
- ALWs see big business as an especially significant problem, while YNMs are even more likely than WWCs to focus on overregulation.
- On specific policy issues that the progressive coalition has emphasized, YNMs are much closer to WWCs in their views.
- An economic nationalism message produces positive responses from both WWCs (+62) and YNMs (+28) but a neutral response from ALWs (+1), as does a proposal for mandatory E-Verify (WWCs +71, YNMs +38, ALWs +2).
- ALWs strongly oppose proposals to reduce environmental regulation (-39) or federal student loans (-42) while YNMs support both (+46 and +7).
- A message of honesty and sacrifice produces strongly positive responses from WWCs (+57%) and YNMs (+42%) but a negative response from ALWs (-2%).
Snapshot of the Electorate
The 6,000 respondents surveyed by American Compass is a representative sample of Americans over the age of 18, but no likely voter screen is applied. As such, the survey has limited value for election forecasting purposes, but it is highly useful for describing the overall composition of the population and views within subgroups. Across all 6,000 respondents, surveyed between September 27 and October 8, 45% supported Kamala Harris and 41% supported Donald Trump, with 10% unsure and 4% supporting someone else. When all respondents were forced to choose between Harris and Trump, Harris led 52% to 48%.
The subgroups studied in this survey together account for nearly one-third of the total population. The White Working Class, defined as white respondents with household income $30K–$80K and less than a four-year degree, or no reported household income and either a high school diploma or some college but no degree, are 20% of the population. Young Non-White Men, defined as respondents with a race other than “white” and born between 1981 and 2006, are 9% of the population. Affluent Liberal Women include women who described themselves as “liberal” or “very liberal” and have high household income and/or a college degree, specifically: (a) household income $80K or more, (b) household income $30K–$80K with at least a four-year degree, or (c) no reported household income and at least a two-year degree. The definition includes 2% of the population.
ALWs overwhelmingly support Kamala Harris while WWCs lean strongly toward Donald Trump. YNMs are split evenly down the middle with a much larger share not committed to either candidate.
As one basic test of political attitudes, the survey presented a standard question asking respondents to say whether “things in the country” are “generally headed in the right direction” or “off on the wrong track.” While ALWs have a generally positive view of conditions, the YNM perspective closely mirrors the WWC view.
Values and Priorities
On two of the major thematic issues emphasized by the Harris campaign, both of which generate very strong responses from ALWs, YNMs show much less interest and have responses similar to WWCs.
The first of these themes is race and various other dimensions of “diversity.” The survey first presented respondents with dichotomous statements about “diversity” and “normal” and explained, “you will be asked two questions: First, which option do you think gets more attention and is currently a higher priority in America today? Second, which option do you think is more important and should be a higher priority?” For “America today,” and then for “your ideal America,” respondents could assign either statement “much higher” or “somewhat higher priority,” or select “Don’t know.”
The two options provided were:
- A culture that celebrates normal, treating everyone with respect but emphasizing the importance of adopting traditional beliefs and choices that create a shared identity for our nation.
- A culture that celebrates diversity, treating whatever beliefs people might have and choices they might make as equally valid, ensuring that everyone can feel that they belong.
The “Compass Score” was calculated as the net share choosing higher priority for an option, with responses of “much higher” receiving double weight. Thus, if 35% of respondents assign Option A much higher priority, 30% assign Option A somewhat higher priority, 25% assign Option B somewhat higher priority, and 10% assign Option B much higher priority, the Compass Score is (35*2) + (30) – (25) – (10*2) = 55. Absolute Compass Scores reflect the priority that Americans give to one option versus another, the distance from a Compass Score for America Today to one for Your Ideal America shows which direction Americans would like to see priorities shift.
ALWs perceive America Today as skewed substantially toward “normal” while in their Ideal America the priority would be given overwhelmingly to “diversity.” (Note: the Compass Score can exceed 100 if a large enough share of respondents assign a “much higher” priority to one option, with that share given double weight.) WWCs and YNMs, by contrast, have more moderate perceptions of the status quo and both want to see modest shifts toward normal.
Another series of questions in the survey asked respondents to choose which of a set of options is the strongest argument that things are going poorly in American life. The options were not intended to be comprehensive but rather to represent the different types of answers different groups of voters tend to gravitate toward.
So, for instance, the survey asked, “For the following claims about America’s culture, which do you think is the strongest argument that things are going poorly?” The options for the culture were:
- We no longer value hard work and excellence and no one is willing to make sacrifices for the greater good; we think “liberty” just means doing whatever we want.
- Government welfare programs have gotten so big that people can get by on public benefits and don’t see any point in trying to get ahead.
- Concerns about racism and diversity have gone way overboard, and now it is white people, men, and Christians who have to worry about being discriminated against.
- We privilege the same groups of people who have always been in the majority and had the most power in our society, while marginalizing or oppressing everyone else.
Notably, all three demographic groups chose the “privilege the same groups” option most often. But whereas WWCs and YNMs distributed their choices relatively evenly across the four options (and in both groups, roughly one-quarter chose “concerns about racism and diversity have gone way overboard”), ALWs overwhelmingly focused on the “privilege” issue.
Similarly, the survey asked “For the following claims about America’s institutions, which do you think is the strongest argument that things are going poorly?” The options for institutions were:
- We can no longer do great things because we do not have competent people in positions of power and we do not uphold high standards.
- People no longer perform their roles within institutions to serve the greater good, instead they use institutions as platforms to promote themselves.
- Political activists have taken control of too many of our institutions and are using them to advance their political agendas.
- We use outdated notions of merit and ignore the disadvantages and discrimination that hold people back, which leaves our institutions with too little diversity in their leadership.
This time, while “too little diversity” was the option chosen most often by ALWs, it was the option chosen least often by both WWCs and YNMs.
On a range of other questions, YNMs aligned with WWCs in showing much greater concern about government overreach than corporate power. The survey asked, “For the following claims about America’s communities, which do you think is the strongest argument that things are going poorly?” The options for communities were:
- The highly educated upper class is separating itself out from the rest of society, leaving everyone else in dysfunctional communities that suffer social isolation and loneliness.
- Government programs have taken over all the things that people used to do for each other and the services that communities used to provide.
- The rule of law is breaking down and crime and disorder have become rampant, making communities unsafe and destroying trust.
- Big business is using its power to destroy competition, squeeze workers, and dominate politics.
For all three groups, “big business” and “rule of law” were the top two options. But while WWCs leaned toward “rule of law” and YNMs leaned slightly toward “big business,” ALWs were overwhelmingly focused on “big business.”
The survey also asked, “For the following claims about America’s economy, which do you think is the strongest argument that things are going poorly?” The options for the economy were:
- Globalization moved American industry to other countries, eliminating jobs, destroying communities, and leaving us dependent on foreign producers.
- Government regulates too much and plays too large a role in the economy, raising costs, slowing innovation, and reducing growth.
- Corporations are pursuing radical political agendas and their human resources departments now tell everyone who they can hire and what they can say.
- The biggest businesses and wealthiest people have all the power and are capturing all the profit.
The argument that “corporations are pursuing radical political agendas” was chosen least often by all three groups, while concern about who has “all the power” was the top choice for both YNMs and ALWs, and the second choice for WWCs. But the argument that “government regulates too much” was notably more popular with WWCs and YNMs than ALWs.
Similar trends appeared on another question, which asked, “Now, think about what would make you most proud to be an American. Choose the three options below that best complete this sentence: It is important to me to live in an America that…”
- Achieves and builds great things
- Relies on American producers to make what we need
- Cares for the least fortunate among us
- Provides as much liberty as possible
- Welcomes people from around the world
- Defends freedom around the world
- Is a great place to start a business
- Is a great place to raise a family
- I still recognize as the America I grew up in
- Honors our values and traditions
- Has the world’s highest standard of living
The chart below shows the top two options chosen by each group (“honors our traditions and values” was first for WWCs and second for YNMs). “Provides as much liberty as possible” was a popular choice across groups, and the top choice for YNMs. But while the priorities for WWCs and YNMs otherwise looked much more similar to each other, the priorities for ALWs were diametrically opposed. “Honors our values and traditions” was the option least often chosen by ALWs and very different options emerged as most popular.
Key Progressive Issues
In a report earlier this year (How the Biden White House Cornered Itself, January 2024), American Compass identified three issues where the Biden-Harris administration had pursued particularly polarizing policies that also had proved broadly unpopular outside Democratic Party: immigration, student loans, and climate change.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, a related set of issues appear as ones where YNMs align far more closely with WWCs and ALWs. On immigration, for instance, an “economic nationalism” message promoting restriction is much more popular with YNMs than ALWs, and more popular still with WWCs.
The survey tested several policy proposals that might accompany a message of economic nationalism. One of these, a mandatory E-Verify system, has proved especially popular across the broader electorate. As with the message generally, E-Verify in particular elicits a neutral reaction from ALWs, but is very popular with YNMs and even more so with WWCs.
Climate and environmental issues are other areas where the Harris campaign has focused substantial attention but YNM views align more closely with WWC views. Returning to the questions about the strongest argument that things are going poorly in American life, the survey asked, “For the following claims about America’s future, which do you think is the strongest argument that things are going poorly?” The options for the future were:
- As fewer and fewer Americans get married and have children, we are losing the basic building blocks of a healthy society and failing to raise a next generation.
- Out-of-control government spending is creating unsustainable levels of debt and threatening to weaken our national security and force large tax increases.
- Radical ideas about history, race, gender, and sexuality are teaching young people to hate their country and themselves and tearing apart the nation.
- Climate change is already disrupting the economy and fueling global conflict; it will make parts of the world uninhabitable and unleash uncontrollable mass migration.
While “climate change” tied with “out-of-control government spending” for YNMs and “radical ideas” tied with spending for WWCs, “climate change” was overwhelmingly the focus for ALWs.
More strikingly, in the context of a message on “providing support to businesses that are investing in building things in the real economy,” the survey asked respondents whether they would support “reforms to environmental laws that make it much easier to get the permits necessary for mining natural resources and building factories.” While WWCs and YNMs were both strongly supportive, ALWs were strongly opposed.
Similarly, in the context of a message on “refocusing our education system away from college and toward other pathways to good jobs,” the survey asked respondents whether they would support “an end to government student loans; colleges would loan the money to cover tuition and students would pay them back after graduating.” While WWCs were strongly supportive and YNMs somewhat supportive, ALWs were strongly opposed.
Finally, the survey tested a less conventional political message. How do Americans feel about a straightforward message that the nation has created enormous challenges for itself and great sacrifice will be required to recover? Specifically, the survey asked, “How would you feel about a politician who said:
We have to be honest about the hole we’ve dug for ourselves in America, and the hard work it’s going to take to get back out. I’m not going to promise to make your life easier, because the truth is, things are going to get harder. We’ve been living it up on borrowed money and our kids are going to get stuck with the bill. That can’t go on. We all sense that America is in decline, but decline is a choice. Running up a tab we can’t pay is a choice. And I’m offering you another choice: that we come together and make the sacrifices we have to make to get us back on the right track.
This message is enormously popular with almost all groups across parties and classes. Indeed, both WWCs and YNMs are strongly in support. ALWs, quite distinctively, are not.
ABOUT THE DATA
The American Compass Messaging Survey was conducted by YouGov between September 27 and October 8, 2024. YouGov interviewed 6,396 nationally representative respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 6,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, and treatment. There were three treatment groups of 2,000 each, with each group receiving a different section of the survey and a subset of questions asked to all groups. The sampling frame is a politically representative “modeled frame” of US adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.
After matching, four samples were weighted separately. These included:
1. Sample 1 (2,000)
2. Sample 2 (2,000)
3. Sample 3 (2,000)
4. All (6,000)
The following was the process for each sample. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region, and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and
post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then post-stratified on 2020 presidential vote choice as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (four categories), race (four categories), and education (four categories), to produce the final weight. The result was four weights (Sample 1, Sample 2, Sample 3, Weight).
In analysis of the results, “Class” is defined by education and income:
- “Lower” (N=1,250; S1=417, S2=439, S3=394): less than a four-year degree and household income below $30K; or did not report household income and do not have a high school diploma.
- “Working” (N=1,876; S1=640, S2=614, S3=622): less than a four-year degree and household income $30K–$80K; or did not report household income and have either a high school diploma or some college but no degree.
- “Middle” (N= 2,101; S1=694, S2=689, S3=718): four-year degree or more and household income $30K–$80K; or household income $80K–$150K; or did not report household income and have a two-year or four-year college degree.
- “Upper” (N=587; S1=195, S2=196, S3=196): household income above $150K; or did not report household income and have a postgraduate degree.
Respondents with a four-year college degree or more but household income below $30K are excluded from analyses using the “Class” variable (N=186).
In analysis of the results, “Generation” is defined by birth year:
- “Silent” (N=191; S1=67, S2=60, S3=64): birth year 1945 or earlier.
- “Boomer” (N=1,685; S1=571, S2=561, S3=553): birth year 1946–1964.
- “Gen X” (N= 1,569; S1=519, S2=515, S3=535): birth year 1965–1980.
- “Millennial” (N=1,712; S1=576, S2=589, S3=547): birth year 1981–1996.
- “Gen Z” (N=843; S1=267, S2=275, S3=301): birth year 1997–2006.
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