Trump’s immigration agenda follows the trade template — for good and ill

The Trump administration’s immigration policy has assumed the “will they, won’t they” character of a mediocre romantic comedy, oscillating between aggressive enforcement raids one day and contemplation of widespread amnesty the next. What’s needed, desperately, is long-term commitment.

Its resemblance to the trade agenda is uncanny, in the impressive early successes, the problem of ongoing instability, and the not yet fully realised potential for setting the US on a better economic course. In both cases, what matters most is not swift and harsh retaliation for past wrongs, but clarity for the future — initiating investments today that will yield returns for years to come.

These challenges are more apparent in the trade context. The surprise at how quickly President Donald Trump imposed stiff tariffs even on close allies has been exceeded only by surprise at their early success and limited downside. Economists lectured that tariffs would only strengthen the dollar, negating their own effect. The dollar has weakened. Consumers will pay the price, they said. Few price increases have reached consumers at all. The EU and Canada have caved on their digital services tax. Mexico is pushing China out of its supply chains. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is shifting capital out of Japan and into the US.